Here's a prediction before the start of the big final: Sri Lanka will lose if it bats first. If Australia bats first, it's anybody's game. Most of the games at the World Cup between the major teams have gone to the side chasing. That's because the opening bowlers have a distinct advantage due to the 9:30 am start and losing two or three early wickets has been the norm. South Africa lost 5, which shows Graeme Smith was wrong to choose to bat after winning the toss.
Second prediction: If Sri Lanka replaces Fernando with Maharoof, that would be a mistake. Maharoof will go for plenty and may cost Sri Lanka the match. Fernando was expensive in the semi-final, but that's because umpire Rudi Koertzen upset him with two warnings for running on to the danger area of the pitch. Fernando could get Ponting with the kind of fast incoming ball that castled Tendulkar.